Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
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UPDATED: May 13, 2023
2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series
Weekly Commentary: The “Star Wars” spin-off series from Disney+ — “Andor” and “The Mandalorian” — will have a barrage of actors to submit for guest acting consideration.
“Andor” will have the best shot with veteran actor Andy Serkis, whose sole Emmy nom was in 2009 for supporting actor (limited) for “Little Dorrit.” As Kino Loy, a prisoner at the Narkina 5 Imperial facility, he was a standout from the critically acclaimed show.
With “Mandalorian,” Jack Black and Christopher Lloyd will be the big names on the contenders’ list but the great Giancarlo Esposito, who’s been nominated twice for playing Moff Gideon in supporting drama actor and guest, seems to be an actor in the TV Academy will have no problem returning to check off. It also helps he’s in the conversation for the final season of AMC’s “Better Call Saul.” Coincidentally, the AMC drama also has a half dozen names in contention — notably Bryan Cranston and Aaron Paul.
The genre shows will be trying relentlessly to get around the one-two punch of Murray Bartlett and Nick Offerman from HBO’s “The Last of Us,” which includes other worthy performances from Lamar Johnson and Gabriel Luna. Its cable/streamer counterpart “Succession” is sure to have a bite at the apple for James Cromwell and Arian Moayed, both of which have been invited to the party before.
Despite Netflix’s “Stranger Things” being ineligible for best drama series, actor Dacre Montgomery as the deceased stepbrother Billy is submitted for guest actor in a drama series, which could be one of the major pieces of recognition the horror series can receive, which includes writing and directing.
You can read the first predictions for the guest actress (drama) category to see which race looks more competitive.
Emmy Nominations voting runs from June 15-26. The Primetime Emmy nominations will be announced on July 12. Check back every Thursday for the latest updates. All information is preliminary and is subject to change.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- Lamar Johnson — “The Last of Us” (HBO)
- Dacre Montgomery — “Stranger Things” (Netflix)
- Jack Black — “The Mandalorian” (Disney+)
- Joel Grey — “The Old Man” (FX)
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- Bryan Cranston — “Better Call Saul” (AMC)
- Aaron Paul — “Better Call Saul” (AMC)
- Gabriel Luna — “The Last of Us” (HBO)
- Christopher Lloyd — “The Mandalorian” (Disney+)
- Michael McKean — “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
- Paul Sun-Hyung Lee — “The Mandalorian” (Disney+)
- Ty Tennant — “House of the Dragon” (HBO)
- Jon Gries — “The White Lotus” (HBO)
- Bradley Whitford — “Law & Order: SVU” (NBC)
- Greg Kinnear — “You” (Netflix)
All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Network)**
** This official list and/or category submission is not yet complete or confirmed and is subject to change.
2022 category winner: Colman Domingo as Ali Muhammed in “Euphoria” (HBO)
Emmy Awards Predictions Categories
DRAMA SERIES | COMEDY SERIES | LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES | TV MOVIE | LEAD ACTOR (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTOR (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTRESS (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | TALK SERIES | SCRIPTED VARIETY | GAME SHOW | DIRECTING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | WRITING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) |
Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories
GUEST ACTOR (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTRESS (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTOR (COMEDY) | GUEST ACTRESS (COMEDY) | VOICE-OVER | SHORT FORM | DOCUMENTARY | MUSIC | ANIMATED |
About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans, and executives.